Opinion depot

Dictators know no bounds

Regime Change Starts at HomeImage by wallyg via Flickr

By Tadesse Haile

Eye opening developments around the globe are reminding us the world is never asleep. People speak for their rights whenever and wherever there is descent, perjury and imbalance in taking control of their destiny. It is about time the leaderships around the world are ahead of the game by understanding the welfare of the populace is not for compromise. However, there is a wide specter of regimes around the world that choose to do things with the traditional ways of wait and see attitude, which inherently affects their decision making abilities to quickly developing trends. Situations may differ from country to country but the expected results of successful policies are always obvious. The extent of damages incurred by some erroneously calculating authorities whose negative accomplishments are usually widely disclosed, depends on how far they stretch the limit when testing the resiliences of the main stream economic and political driving factors of a particular country. We all know the honest and responsible way of dealing with the ever challenging and changing social structure is well proved to be the term limit of a government that is chosen to lead. It is a historically understood phenomenon that a leadership that stays for too long gradually loses its grip on the realities of the situation, repeatedly failing to respond to the changing people's needs and aspirations. It is by then that the futile struggle to prolong the inevitable, results in the accumulation of mistakes after mistakes. 
Left: CARL VENNE, Crow Indian Tribal Chairman ...Image via Wikipedia
There are countries that understood this universal truth and made their ways to the top of the class of effective systems of government by building a relatively responsive system. No doubt, education is key to producing literate citizens, whereby the level of communication and efficiencies of management of any system is more dynamic. The question is; which comes first? Is it putting together a system that looks progressive or a system that accommodates in a delayed response by conforming itself accordingly? We all know a perfectionist policy never worked because it puts forward a formula that is not tested to falter. A delayed but timely response can be more effective in terms of satisfying the needs of the people. There are good examples that implement farsighted and relatively well equipped and working systems to learn from by not necessarily being their stooges. Why not follow them then? This is where the problem arises; depending on how well the tested systems are implemented, the opportunities given to a ruling party to lead responsibly can be transformed into a positive development in the over-all growth of the system or it can result in a backward move as in most cases witnessed so far. The details can be hard to explain but connecting the dots  will lead us to the fact that the success of a regime depends on how it came to power to begin with. If it is a group put together to lead in a haste to avoid more complications forthcoming in a country that may be engulfed in a sudden change of global or regional balance, not to mention its internal strife, then things depend on the understanding level of the regime to get back to the norm that the social status requires. Otherwise, it is easy to predict the outcome. The most recent change of leadership in Tunisia and the recent uprisings by the Egyptians and the current Libyan turmoil are very good samples for the people's reactions to prolonged dictatorial rules. 

Now, the story of change of regimes hasn't been as smooth as one may think. There are ample examples where a sudden change of regimes due to outpouring of uprisings resulted in more damaging confusions because there was no coherent movement that is ready to continue in a peaceful transition. This kind of regime change has brought countries to their knees making it very hard to recuperate by making the dreams of those who fought for change more difficult to materialize. The reason is simple. Out of frustration, the revolt usually has no clear vision about what needs to be done after the overthrow of the impending regime. Their focus is mainly in overthrowing the current government, with the belief that there will be no problem what so ever in the aftermath. But the realities usually end up giving away the throne to a dictatorship that sometimes organizes within a short time to save the country from the anarchic and lawless situations. This is where planing effective transition is crucial for a revolt to be successful.

This has happened again and again in Africa. There is a generation of leaders that have led their countries for over two decades. Yet, it doesn't look they are ready to promote successive regimes that can take over without inciting power struggle that usually leads a country to a civil unrest, thus resulting in discontinuities of the direly needed economic, infrastructural and societal developments. It has already started in the north with Tunisia, Egypt and Libya in the lead. The tendency of it moving in any direction is dependent upon the merits of the regimes on whether they want their country to start from scratch after their demise or prepare to promote a smooth transition to a higher level? From all the clues that are openly and clearly revealing in front of their eyes, it is high time African leaders realize there is limit for everything.

Tiya stelae of Ethiopia

TiyaImage via Wikipedia


  Tiya stelae of Ethiopia

Lidetu and the disrupting elements in London



I find his remarks very useful in that it promotes continuation of the country's political direction from the 2005 successful but short lived stories of  the opposition. I believe he has a good point, which to my amazement has been what I thought was the right way of thinking. It is nice to see him back to reality after a somewhat disappointing election results of  the recent 2010 parliamentary votes. The future is always an open end dependent on how we make use of it.

From the Editor's desk.

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Meskal Square, Addis Ababa, EthiopiaImage via Wikipedia

By Barry Malone
ADDIS ABABA (Reuters) - Ethiopia is hoping to attract more investment from Chinese, Indian and Turkish companies as part of efforts to industrialise its largely agriculture-based economy, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi said.
Though still one of the world's poorest countries, Ethiopia says it has posted double-digit growth rates for six years in a row making it Africa's fastest growing non-oil producer.
"Our hope is that industry will grow faster than agriculture over the next five years," Meles told Reuters in an interview. "We will maintain an export-led industrialisation strategy. The main approach will be to try to attract investment."
Meles said his government would target Chinese, Indian and Turkish firms who wanted to invest in the country's fledgling textile and leather industries.
"We expect more investment from Turkey," Meles said. "We also expect more investment in the textile sector from Indian companies. In the leather industry, a lot of Chinese companies have shown an interest. Some Europeans, too."
Ethiopia's new five-year plan, unveiled in August, predicts a "base-case" scenario of 11 percent average annual growth and a "high-case scenario" of 14.9 percent growth for the period.
Meles said the economy would grow this year at between the 11 percent predicted by his finance ministry and a more ambitious 15 percent.
Ethiopia is Africa's biggest coffee exporter and the world's fourth largest exporter of sesame. It is also one of Africa's biggest potential markets -- with a population of 80 million -- and most of its people have no telephones or bank accounts.
But Meles stood firm on his long-held position that there would be no liberalisation of telecommunications or banking.
Despite that, the 55-year-old said he hoped talks for Ethiopia to enter the World Trade Organisation, would finish soon: "The negotiations are beginning to pick up momentum now."
The former rebel said foreign reserves, which fell to $850 million earlier in 2009, had recovered on booming exports.
POWER PLANS
He dismissed concerns that a 16.7 percent devaluation of the Ethiopian birr, the fourth since January 2009, could spur inflation. The year-on-year inflation rate hit 10.6 percent in October -- way over the government's target of single figures.
"The impact of the devaluation programme is going to be a one-off affair because the massive devaluation was a one-off affair. So we believe the average yearly inflation rate will be in the range of 6-7 percent this year," Meles said.
Inflation in Ethiopia hit a high of 64.2 percent in July 2008. After that peak, the government halted state borrowing and increased bank reserves to drive down the rate and it had been in single digits this year until after the devaluation.
Meles said that power shedding -- which the government says cost the Ethiopian economy 1.1 percent of gross domestic product last year -- should end when a hydroelectric dam that suffered a tunnel collapse is repaired in three months.
Ethiopia, with ambitions to generate 10,000MW, is building Africa's biggest hydropower dam and Meles said the country could become a power exporter within two years.
"I think by the end of the five-year plan we'll be very significant exporters but we should start exporting in a year or two," he said. "Djibouti will probably the first country to get power supply from Ethiopia."
Meles rejected claims from the opposition and some foreign analysts that his government inflates growth figures to attract investment.
"Our economic growth is evaluated very carefully by the IMF and they have never said that we have cooked the outturn figures," Meles said. "They have accepted them as facts. And cooking figures is a very dangerous thing to do."


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