Who owns change?

Image via WikipediaBy Tadesse Tegegn

Summing up the recent developments in the Ethiopian politics, one can say it is a hell of events that carried a bundle of messages about which way the country is heading. It seems like a turn of a greatly deserving chapter whose subsequent pages tend to be heavily laden with yet another revolutionary tide that may change the course that we have been accustomed in the last 20 years.

If we look at the root causes of the current economic shortfalls, you may well agree it may have started with the sudden currency devaluation the Ethiopian ruling party passed. The measure may have stunned many, but the consequence of not doing so, may also be  hard to imagine. Many may have been expecting some form of  devaluation, but not at the magnitude of a whole 17% in one day. In many advanced countries this kind of grandiose move can only be a recipe for disaster. But in Ethiopia it has proven to be possible. For how long? It is yet to be seen. The turn of events since then, however have been gradually encroaching to connect all the emerging economic problems to the devaluation of Birr.  It looks like, as a vulnerable group, the poor have been affected the most. First the food prices started climbing, resulting in the concerns of the people pouring into the streets and the media. The government had to take a swift move in fixing this destabilizing trend in its infancy, as the North African revolts, mainly due to the sudden jump of food prices, are giving a good reason to believe they may soon come home. The prices of items were given a ceiling beyond which merchants can’t ask; salaries were raised and commercial wholesalers were held accountable for their greedy attempts to unfairly collect too much profit at the expense of the consumers that have no other alternatives. According to the government spokesperson, the price limit was designed for the suppliers to make no more than 4-6% profit. This may be news you have already known. But have you realized its impact in the country’s politics?  Economists have been predicting the well talked about measure will bring shortages of products and it very well did. In an apparent struggle to counter this trend, the regime has started to import and sell food and other items directly to the consumers, in what looks like we are back to the communist era. It reminds me of a saying about how history can repeat itself. Wait a minute; the regime is not by any means communist; they abandoned it just about 20 years ago.  So where has this policy of government interfering with free trade and long lines of consumers forming in the government supply (rationing?)chains around the country has come from? Oh, how smart, they already said it is a short term measure. Ok; good luck with recruiting a new generation of selfless sellers that go beyond their interests - their country. Hopefully it is not going to take too long; only in Ethiopia. I wouldn’t be surprised, like everything else, if this wild guess also works. At least there is a form of (revolutionary) democracy in Ethiopia.

What else can I say? The whole reason behind this development is the fact that the merchants refused to sell their items with the limited profit the government passed as a “temporary” law. Let’s look at it very closely. First there was a humongous devaluation of the Birr, then, there was the inevitable inflation that was only meant to be a short term phenomenon but brought about its own garbage of the merchants trying to take advantage of it. Then the regime intervened. For how long no one knows?

Now I tried to stop and think. Think about what has been happening in the last week or so. After the prime minister’s Historic speech and introduction of the Nile Dam initiative that will cost about $5B, there has been a feverish epidemic among the population to finance it solely by buying the newly released bonds as investment, savings and contribution to this nationally important project. The government sent its delegations to various European and North American cities to solicit support. I have been observing the unusually dumb character of the so called Diaspora opposition group but never as dumb as this time. Have they lost their mind and civility? Is it self-serving or self defeating? They wanted to storm meetings. They said shame on you, this time without mentioning names. They did everything they could to disrupt the meetings. What they forgot was the importance the Ethiopian people gave for this historic project. It is one thing to protest against the regime. It is quite the opposite to assume the country should stop planning and even functioning unless the current regime yields power, all from the comfort of the western life style. I have never seen such a counter-productive movement.

Then I thought how valuable these people would have been for a healthy opposition, if they could focus on a disciplined and challenging opposition, that would ring the bell for the people to think there is an alternative to all this. And I thought, if Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, as usual, singlehandedly passes an invitation for all to come and participate in the building of the new and inclusive democracy that involves all and for all to contribute by lifting the ban on free speech and the media as a whole and tell them to do everything they have been doing overseas in the home land, will this courageous move pour cold water on their anger filled vengeance? I asked myself what if? And I answered to myself nothing as bad as the current bitterness would be observed, if every ban is lifted overnight. Nothing at all, because change belongs to people and they know very well how to make ends meet, however confusing it may seem. If this sounds like an open letter to the Prime Minister, so be it.

Dictators know no bounds

Image by wallyg via Flickr

By Tadesse Haile

Eye opening developments around the globe are reminding us the world is never asleep. People speak for their rights whenever and wherever there is descent, perjury and imbalance in taking control of their destiny. It is about time the leaderships around the world are ahead of the game by understanding the welfare of the populace is not for compromise. However, there is a wide specter of regimes around the world that choose to do things with the traditional ways of wait and see attitude, which inherently affects their decision making abilities to quickly developing trends. Situations may differ from country to country but the expected results of successful policies are always obvious. The extent of damages incurred by some erroneously calculating authorities whose negative accomplishments are usually widely disclosed, depends on how far they stretch the limit when testing the resiliences of the main stream economic and political driving factors of a particular country. We all know the honest and responsible way of dealing with the ever challenging and changing social structure is well proved to be the term limit of a government that is chosen to lead. It is a historically understood phenomenon that a leadership that stays for too long gradually loses its grip on the realities of the situation, repeatedly failing to respond to the changing people's needs and aspirations. It is by then that the futile struggle to prolong the inevitable, results in the accumulation of mistakes after mistakes. 

Image via Wikipedia

There are countries that understood this universal truth and made their ways to the top of the class of effective systems of government by building a relatively responsive system. No doubt, education is key to producing literate citizens, whereby the level of communication and efficiencies of management of any system is more dynamic. The question is; which comes first? Is it putting together a system that looks progressive or a system that accommodates in a delayed response by conforming itself accordingly? We all know a perfectionist policy never worked because it puts forward a formula that is not tested to falter. A delayed but timely response can be more effective in terms of satisfying the needs of the people. There are good examples that implement farsighted and relatively well equipped and working systems to learn from by not necessarily being their stooges. Why not follow them then? This is where the problem arises; depending on how well the tested systems are implemented, the opportunities given to a ruling party to lead responsibly can be transformed into a positive development in the over-all growth of the system or it can result in a backward move as in most cases witnessed so far. The details can be hard to explain but connecting the dots  will lead us to the fact that the success of a regime depends on how it came to power to begin with. If it is a group put together to lead in a haste to avoid more complications forthcoming in a country that may be engulfed in a sudden change of global or regional balance, not to mention its internal strife, then things depend on the understanding level of the regime to get back to the norm that the social status requires. Otherwise, it is easy to predict the outcome. The most recent change of leadership in Tunisia and the recent uprisings by the Egyptians and the current Libyan turmoil are very good samples for the people's reactions to prolonged dictatorial rules. 

Now, the story of change of regimes hasn't been as smooth as one may think. There are ample examples where a sudden change of regimes due to outpouring of uprisings resulted in more damaging confusions because there was no coherent movement that is ready to continue in a peaceful transition. This kind of regime change has brought countries to their knees making it very hard to recuperate by making the dreams of those who fought for change more difficult to materialize. The reason is simple. Out of frustration, the revolt usually has no clear vision about what needs to be done after the overthrow of the impending regime. Their focus is mainly in overthrowing the current government, with the belief that there will be no problem what so ever in the aftermath. But the realities usually end up giving away the throne to a dictatorship that sometimes organizes within a short time to save the country from the anarchic and lawless situations. This is where planing effective transition is crucial for a revolt to be successful.

This has happened again and again in Africa. There is a generation of leaders that have led their countries for over two decades. Yet, it doesn't look they are ready to promote successive regimes that can take over without inciting power struggle that usually leads a country to a civil unrest, thus resulting in discontinuities of the direly needed economic, infrastructural and societal developments. It has already started in the north with Tunisia, Egypt and Libya in the lead. The tendency of it moving in any direction is dependent upon the merits of the regimes on whether they want their country to start from scratch after their demise or prepare to promote a smooth transition to a higher level? From all the clues that are openly and clearly revealing in front of their eyes, it is high time African leaders realize there is limit for everything.