Why early election is important

Over two years ago,in the middle of a daunting crisis in Ethiopian politics, I thought, if the unrest continued, conducting early election and abandoning the parliament would be one of the solutions for transforming and stabilizing the unrest. Things turned out to be different in what seemed to be a 360 degree turn of events. However, the level of conversation I had with one of a few who showed interest to read my article, still proves to be relevant. Read on...

This is the opinion I came up after realizing the current situation in Ethiopia is creating a negative progress in terms of human development that the country is in a dire need. The government admits its various shortcomings in resolving the problems of the youth (which are at least half of the population), the deterioration of corruption, and the lack of timely response for all identity questions. In other more relevant democratic systems, this is equivalent to lack of confidence in the ruling party, which can immediately lead to an early election.

In today's historic speech made by the president in the opening ceremony of the parliament, the remedy for the current unrest in the country was proposed. The measures that will be taken, if done correctly,  are very promising. The 10 billion Bir for rehabilitating the youth, and the steps that need  to be taken to create an inclusive government with more vibrant and participating opposition parties in the parliament are some of the major policy changes that the government looks persuaded to take. Whether it is out of concern for the uncertainty of the future or to be ahead of the game early enough, is yet to be seen.

The media has also changed its usual way of doing things by exposing the rather unwelcoming rhetorical opposition leaders as the instigators of the violence, in a bold attempt to put all the eggs for the people to judge, by openly transmitting the war mongering leaders' instructions given to their followers through the social media. The very vocal social media records that clearly identified the  true nature of the diaspora leaders, who openly condone violence, are put for the people to see where the evil is coming from. These can be damaging to the power seeker's agenda, no matter what the results may be.

Although these major steps to change course show how quick the government is to understand and correct its weaknesses, it's yet to be seen whether it will bring calm and get people to rally to the government's side.

The whole scenario we are witnessing these days could have been easy to predict, if one has read thoroughly in my booklet, "Horn of Africa beyond Borders", published while this regime was at its inception. It brought up the major opportune moments the then TPLF ignored, where there could have been challenging, but interesting form of government that would sustain, or in some cases get admiration to have contained the otherwise provocative opposition. That way, its my guess that there wouldn't be accumulated frustrations that violently surface like the one we see now in a form of unrest. If the violence was unavoidable, then, it wouldn't be as intense; again my belief.

If the unrest continues, or in some cases, it escalates, the clear sign of the message would be lack of confidence on the government. This is when the leadership, including the parliament should be  dissolved and start over with a true election that will be cautious of not using 100% again, all in the name of halting further stupidity of the opposition to resort to destruction.

The following is the conversation I had after posting the above article on Facebook on October 10, 2016:

• Eyob Solomon Interesting! But ... Hmmm, how about starts by forming the transitional government together and which can only serve 1-2 terms until... 1- The oppositions in freehand establishing themselves, their's eventual party programs. 2- Reaching out to the public freely and fairly so that the public can be able to judge and choose? For instance I am completely in favor of Pr Mesfin's preposition for the getting around the unfathomable and terrifying scenarios seem to lie ahead. For me, too often feels parties and the public has never been given a fair chance to listen to one another which results citizens have never had the power over their voting rights or the power over the true sense of rights to choose. I know democracy and the right to choose is a process and therefore I'm convinced this process has to start somewhere, where the publics and the available political parties meets without anyone's interference!

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  Et Tune Thank you for reading through my piece. I did listen to prof. Mesfin's proposal. It's an extensive analysis and solution for transitioning the country to the next stage. However, with all due respect for the professor and his intellectually interwoven experience, it all comes to one man's opinion. Ethiopia is bigger than all of us and so is made up of ideas from all angles. So is the Horn of Africa, which I engage my focus, even bigger. My opinion is based on the fact that using the election as a window of opportunity, where the parliament and the opposition can participate, will bring back the 1997 opportune moments as better than a failed memory. This time though, it should be about continuing with whatever victories are gained and make an extraordinary effort to widen the window, with a priority given to conducting all in a civilized manner without forgetting every significant entity has a stake in the country's affairs, and no one should be stained with hate. This said, as usual, it is only my opinion, and the key is not to have a closed mind.

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  Eyob Solomon Yes dear having open mind is the key! Regarding the proposal I mentioned earlier, of course it can and should be debated, reshapes, reformulates, etc. But at least it is the proposal available and based on the exploration of the reality as whole on theground!! And if it applies can serve all without exception!! We all see and recognize the situation in Ethiopia on our own terms. The reality, however, seems to have reached the point where there is no return. To propose the re-election, betting millions for job creation ... etc are not near to the recognising nor addressing the root cause of the uprising!! The whole uprising from north to south, east to west, is unanimous and no matter how we look at it, citizens are saying enough to the existing regime, period! And everyday citizens are paying the ultimate price for their demands!! The proposals given to lead the country to a peaceful transition without really recognize and embrace the people's frustration and demand, is for me, either is in serious denial or for some reason is an able to see the true nature of the whole situation. There is a huge gaps between the regime and citizens and that gap did not came through the night... it came from a developing mistrust over the years!!

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  Et Tune Yes you're right about mistrust developing over years. There's no country on earth whose government can rule comfortably without mistrust developing from some or all angles, depending on how spread it can be. The level of mistrust that caused the recent unrest, can be interpreted in various ways. In my article, I tried to present it as a lack of confidence on the government, if the unruliness intensifies. If this was the case, sooner or later the emergency measure will not stop people's will. What you said can be tested by the upcoming events, on whether the violence is based on people's will or not. Until then, it's hard to jump into any conclusion. What I meant to say is, as large as Ethiopia is, and with rapidly evolving dynamics, we need to be careful not to sensationalize personal or group opinions, although they seem to have considerable number of supporters. It can be a tasty move to misinterpret the validity of ones agenda as if it is broadly accepted, and bet all one has on it, especially when and where it may not seem applicable to the reality on the grounds that have already come a long way, whether we like it or not. It's all about accepting things with open mind and adopt any analysis as one of many possible solutions, and not as the only remedy that has to be universally accepted. The damage this kind of thought can bring is incalculable. Another way to think about the recent events may be to try to suspect if the violence hasn't served the purpose due to the damaging and at times frightening situation many haven't called for. Imagine how many would want this to repeat. The way to success that would attract the overwhelming majority would be to have a situation where a popular movement would prevail from coast to coast. That only happens naturally, without us stirring it badly.

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  Eyob Solomon I just wonder why this term "some" sounds so familiar ?? In any case, I do not have much objection to your words or opinions. On the contrary! However your opinions based on your analysis of the existing situation/the conflict of interest between the ruling regime and the citizens, and given solutions to it, could have applied sort of likely 10 or 15 years ago! I say this with the risk of being labelled for exaggerating/sensationalised for personal or groups of anti of someone or something agenda. It is OK!! There is no government or policy that can benefit everyone! Even with policy enforcement which in fact went through referendum is that the majority oppresses the minority! But if the regime's policy is based on or a means to establish the specific ethnic group's superiority over the other stakeholders and the superior's interest in the priority?? Yes, the result is what we are witnessing in our own home and the more uglier and bloody yet to becoming! Yes that's right, Ethiopia is a large nation with its enormous complexity, and therefore the TPLF regime is not suitable to rule this huge nation! The tone of the uprising, the fearlessness towards the ultimate price (which unfortunately can only be demonstrates out of, when have nothing to lose) and the measures being taken by demonstrators is the solid prove! I say it again whether we hear it or not the voice is unanimous and calling out loud "ENOUGH to EPRDF Tplf". Me as individual or any of these opposition's inside the country and abroad role is irrelevant or insignificant in this existing coast to coast uprising.

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  Et Tune Agreed. It has been the ultimate goal of most of us for quite a while. EPRDF is behind in its promise to involve the main stream Ethiopians in power sharing and economic balance. I can write the cause for this delay in many ways. What we need to stress on, however, is pushing ever harder to that goal in as many working ways as possible, and we can't be definite in perusing the one that is the most effective. We need to treat any form of struggle we choose as a process instead of making it an end in itself. There is no such thing in my vocabulary. That's why I hear the same thing from each quarter of the major driving forces of the country to the extent it gets boring because they all talk from their quarters point of view, and stick to it no matter what. Each group wants to paint the other as a demagogue, that is bent to destroy the country. If I ever get the time to listen to some of those rhetoric, sometimes I feel it is the end of the world. Things shouldn't be that way.