Stable Ethiopia now needs international and local support - Scotsman.com News

Published Date: 29 March 2010

By Charles Tannock
TWO decades ago, Ethiopia was a Cold War battlefield. On the ideological map of the world, it was Soviet territory, a land of famine, dictatorship and civil war. But, with the overthrow of Mengistu Haile Mariam's Marxist-Leninist dictatorship in 1991, Ethiopia began to transform itself. Today, it ranks among the five fastest-growing economies in the world and is a bastion of regional stability.
That stability matters, because the Horn of Africa is becoming a security headache once again. If the region is to be stabilised, Ethiopia will need to play a key part.

Besides the never-ending anarchy of neighbouring Somalia, the regional challen
ADVERTISEMENT
ges facing Ethiopia and its long-serving prime minister, Meles Zenawi, are daunting. The country remains on a war footing with Eritrea over the disputed border village of Badme. The peace deal between the government and the former rebel SPLM is unravelling fast in neighbouring Sudan, where a scheduled referendum in the south in January 2011 on secession and independence – part of the 2005 peace deal – may provoke a return to all-out war.

Further south, Kenya remains scarred by the aftermath of post-election violence, and its constitutional review process could lead to yet more bloodshed. Moreover, Ethiopia's proximity to strife-torn Yemen just across the Red Sea is complicating the country's foreign policy because of its role in working to keep Somalia out of Islamist control.

Despite these myriad problems – or perhaps because of them – Ethiopia has an opportunity to emerge as the undisputed regional leader. Though landlocked, Ethiopia is comparatively well endowed with natural resources, not least its fertile farmland. A final settlement of the lengthy dispute with Egypt over the waters of the Blue Nile appears to be in sight, and could have a powerful impact on economic growth.

But, despite Ethiopia's progress, the international community has been reluctant to view the country as a strategic partner. Of course, Ethiopia has its problems, but these should be seen in an African context. The human-rights situation could undoubtedly be improved – in particular, the treatment of the political opposition leader Birtukan Mideksa – but Isaias Afwerki's regime in Eritrea is far worse....Read full story

U.S. lawmakers concerned over political conditions

Jim Fisher-Thompson I March 28, 2010

Key U.S. lawmakers, both Democratic and Republican, have expressed concern for political conditions in Ethiopia, citing authoritarian tendencies by its government as well as human rights abuses such as the continued detention of a prominent opposition leader.

Leading off a March 24 hearing on U.S. policy toward Africa, Representative Donald Payne (Democrat, New Jersey), chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Africa and Global Health, said of the ruling party, "I am deeply concerned and troubled about the deteriorating [political] conditions in Ethiopia. The EPRDF [Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front] is becoming increasingly totalitarian."

The chairman said he was particularly bothered by the Ethiopian government's recent jamming of Voice of America (VOA) broadcasts after the government unjustly compared the official U.S. broadcasting agency to the Rwandan hate radio station Milles Collines. Payne said the Rwandan station was "used by those who committed the Rwandan genocide" in 1994.

The panel's highest-ranking Republican, Representative Chris Smith (New Jersey), added, "Unfortunately, Prime Minister Meles [Zenawi] shows deteriorating signs of human rights practices."

Payne expressed special concern for Birtukan Mideksa, a former Ethiopian judge and opposition leader convicted in 2005 of attempting to overthrow the constitutional order and sentenced to life in prison. She was pardoned in 2007, but rearrested and her sentence reinstated in December 2008.

According to the recently released State Department 2009 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices, Birtukan, who led the opposition UDJ (Unity for Democracy and Justice) party, was "held in solitary confinement until June, despite a court ruling that indicated it was a violation of her constitutional rights. She was also denied access to visitors except for a few close family members, despite a court order granting visitor access without restrictions.".......................Read More

What the Diaspora could do in election 2010

Eskinder Nega [Addis Ababa] March 27, 2010

Even I sense it from the great distance I am at from America; home to the largest, richest and most vocal Ethiopian Diaspora in the world.

Call it what you think is best: disillusionment; disappointment; withdrawal; anger; or even, on an optimistic note, the calm before the storm. But there is no dispute that a considerable element of the Diaspora, many of the very people who came out screaming enthusiastically to welcome CUD’s leaders at Reagan National Airport in 2007, are now visibly smaller at political gatherings, less generous in their contribution, are harder to mobilize, and generally exhibit all the signs of fatigue.

Regardless of the diversity of opinion in the Diaspora, a consensus of unambiguous support for the democratization of Ethiopia as it is understood in the West has been a superseding facet for the past two decades. And that is no small feat. Between the mid 60s and the fall of the Derg at the beginning of the 90s, what was then a small Diaspora, but with a disproportionately powerful voice in politics, had mitigated the rhetoric of public discourse to the far left of Marxist thought. I still remember reading, in total amazement, old

Ethiopian publications from the 60s and 70s, pioneered by intelligent young people like Hagos GebreYesus, Desalegn Rahemato and Endrias Eshete , as they ranted against perceived exploitation of innocent Ethiopians by Western capitalists; how vital Ethiopia was as a dumping ground for the excess goods produced by imperialists; and how great dictatorship of the proletariat really is. (Endrias Eshete’s passion for dictatorship—though not that of the working class anymore—still endures, by the way.) It took about two decades before the Diaspora was able to move beyond this false start; and it took the infusion of a new generation in the 80s, more decisively in the 90s, for the long delayed overhaul in both methodology and substance to take hold. The intellectual rebirth is now best embodied by the weekly articles of the brilliant Professor from LA, Almeayehu GebreMariam. In short, the Diaspora is now positively ingrained in mainstream political thought; far away from—to borrow a phrase from Lenin---infantile extremism.

The 2005 elections was the culmination of the Diaspora’s renaissance in the 90’s and 2000’s, when it was able to entrench itself as a strong and united voice in the CUD; both before and after the elections. It is implausible to envisage the success of the CUD’s last minute offensive in the countryside without the financial backing of the Diaspora; which impacted heavily on the outcome of the election.

Ethiopian political dynamics is now very different than it was in 2005 of course, but there is an important last minute role for the Diaspora to play; yes, even at this late stage of the elections.

Here are some possibilities:

1: ENDORSEMENTS:

Endorsements are an integral part of modern elections throughout the world. Whatever pundits may say about their power to sway votes, they are passionately sought by politicians; which is a mark of their symbolic power. And in politics image is half the bankable asset.

Swaying votes by mere endorsement is too ambitious an undertaking, but doubt not that endorsements will not only help to strengthen the beleaguered opposition in this difficult election year (just how difficult is amply shown by the new HRW report) but will also help to single out the viable ones( or the viable one) in a crowded field where up to twelve candidates are competing for a single seat in Addis.

Not too many people may have been swayed by Oprah’s endorsement of Obama, but the amount of news and excitement it generated was a huge boost for his campaign. And the pundits who seriously wonder if his presidency would at all have been possible without the stirring effect of her endorsement are not few in numbers. But celebrity endorsements are not possible for those who live in Ethiopia for obvious reasons, yet is something that should be considered seriously by those who have opted for exile. Exiled artists have a large following in Ethiopia, and their predominantly young followers—who constitute the majority in Ethiopia---are predisposed to at least listen to their views. This is power that must not be abused, taken for granted; nor, at a time when the national issue is as important as it is now, must it be wasted.

The kind of endorsement common to Iranian politics, in which exiled groups of academics, scientists and public figures publicly endorse the party or candidate of their choice, could potentially be important in the Ethiopian context, too. The Diaspora has an ample reservoir from Ethiopia’s Who’s Who in every conceivable field, and many voters in Ethiopia---including the undecided ones—would be fascinated to learn of their endorsements.

The idea of civic responsibility will hardly be new to this group, nor the fact that in this wired world their access to voters in Ethiopia seriously curtailed by place of residence. What is probably lacking so far is someone who will take the initiative.

2: CYBER ACTIVISM--- The court of world opinion

Few people know what Twitter is in Ethiopia .But those tasked by the government to make sure that what information goes out to the world is highly regulated, particularly in the event of street protests (which are unlikely and not desirable), have nightmares about the possibilities of Twitter. What was casually launched as one more addition to social media by three innovative Americans in 2006, less than a year after the 2005 elections in Ethiopia, has been inadvertently catapulted by the last Iranian election in to a powerful weapon of peaceful political activism.

Tweets go over two networks, the cyber world and text messages of mobiles (cell phones). They are charmingly easy to use, are specifically designed to spread fast because they are apt to be picked and retransmitted by other Twitters; unlike other social medias, like email, which are neither public nor broadcast like Twitter does. In other words, Twitter is within reach of the vast majority of the Diaspora, and for the first time ever will directly link it with tens of millions of people throughout the world—the court of world opinion. The monopoly of media organizations, who habitually ignore most stories about Ethiopia, could now be overturned for the first time.

Potential Twitters from Ethiopia during the elections, who will be few in numbers but could easily overcome their disadvantage in numbers by sheer force of will, face an overpowering predicament. The government will most probably tamper with the internet and SMS during the elections, as did the Iranian government, which will severely limit their ability to transmit. But the evidence is that the mass of Tweets came from Diaspora Iranians who relayed information they collected from family, friends, embassies, NGOs and political organizations. A similar mass of information, in case the need arises, by the Ethiopian Diaspora that overwhelms the cyber world will reinforce the confidence of Ethiopians that they are not alone and involve tens of millions around the world in an intimate, urgent way with events in Ethiopia. A sufficiently outraged Westerners—if there is due cause—will instinctively reach out to their elected representatives in large numbers; which could change—at long last---Western policy towards Ethiopia by bringing forth the issue of human rights; something the Diaspora had fought for almost two decades now.

But none of these will be possible without a determined minority taking the lead; some working in groups, others alone in the cyber world---the new weapon of the oppressed.

------------------

Tidbits:

BRIEF NEWS FROM ETHIOPIA

Azeb Mesfin to face Welay Aschalew

PM Meles Zenawi’s wife will face an electoral opponent fielded by Mederek in this year’s elections. Medrek’s candidate is Welay Aschalew, who is broadly thought to be sufficiently credible to make this at least an interesting contest; assuming of course a level playing field. Azeb is running as an incumbent in her Welqaiyt constituency, where many residents are apprehensive of a settlement scheme by the regional government which they fear will eventually alter the demographics of the area. Azeb is chair of an important parliamentary committee, which was supposed to have pushed her out of her husband’s shadow; but which has not happened so far.

Gebru Asrat is challenging Addisalem Balema(PhD), a long time Ethiopian Ambassador to China who returned from Beijing to Mekele to work in EFFORT, the mysterious business empire of the TPLF. Addisalem is not the grassroots campaigner type, and foreign observers are expected to be visibly present in Mekele, an opening that Gebru is apt to maximize.

Security cameras to be installed on main roads.

The installation of federal police commissioned security cameras in underway on Addis Ababa’s main thoroughfares. The cameras are being installed as part of the government’s extensive preparation against possible post election riots after the May elections.

An undisclosed amount of cameras have been imported from China; much to the irritant of some countries that had hoped(not for commercial reasons) to provide the hardware as well as the expertise to run and maintain them; according to sources.

The cameras have so far been installed on Bole road; but because they will be too provocative few expect them to be installed in Merkato, hub of post election protests in 2005.It will be interesting to see if the government thinks otherwise.

The Impact of Education on Children's Lives in Ethiopia

Education Advisor, Concern Worldwide in Ethiopia
Posted: March 25, 2010 09:48 PM
Getinet Leweyehu


Constructing schools closer to children's homes in rural Ethiopia

Nine-year-old Aster Arba lives in the remote village of Duguna Fango, about 450 kilometers southwest of Ethiopia's capital Addis Ababa. Before Concern Worldwide intervened, Aster and her friends had to walk eight kilometers every day back and forth to school.

In fact, they walked barefoot in extreme heat and risked being raped, abducted or attacked by wild animals. When I first saw the area, I was humbled by how difficult it was for a young child to travel to school in this extremely hot climate over such long distances.

In response to these difficulties, Concern and our partner organization WRDA began constructing basic education schools in villages that didn't have any. Today, Aster and her friends attend school within a short walking distance from their homes.

During our regular monitoring visits to these schools, I met with the children who are now learning better and are far happier with their new situation. When I spoke with one of their teachers, Zinash, she explained that the closer proximity of the school gives children a sense of freedom and allows them to attend classes regularly, which in turn has contributed to a marked improvement in their performance at school.

Vulnerable children benefit from basic education in Addis Ababa

Often in Ethiopia, children, especially girls, migrate to urban areas in search of better lives and educational opportunities. In most cases, these children are either entirely uneducated or drop out of school after one or two years. Children who aren't in school are forced to work as housemaids and can be easily fall prone to child labor and sexual exploitation.

Others have to support their families by running small businesses and wind up on the streets as petty traders. In these cases, there is no money or time for them to attend formal schools. Others are orphaned by HIV and AIDS, and do not have the opportunity to go to school. When I meet and speak to these children, I see that Concern's support has given them hope. They have purpose and clearly feel accepted. Without help, I know that many of the girls would face a future of prostitution and the boys would become delinquents.

Concern has responded to their needs by collaborating with three local organizations in Addis Ababa to run schools with a flexible schedule, which allows very poor children, who have to work, to attend classes at times appropriate for them. The lessons are designed to streamline children back into formal education within three years, which enables them to complete the first education cycle of Ethiopia's formal education system. To meet that goal, Concern provides free education materials, books and school uniforms and pays the teachers' salaries. As a teacher myself, I am happy to work with Concern to reach these children and their teachers.

Experience has shown that the children thrive, not just because they are receiving an education, but because they feel a sense of acceptance and receive recognition from their teachers and peers. In the last nine years (2002-2010), Concern and six partner organizations in three different regions of Ethiopia have established 22 schools where more than 15,000 vulnerable children (50 percent of them girls), who were not able to go to formal schools, have attended the first education cycle, the basis for continuing in Ethiopia's formal schooling system. Read More on The Huffington Post

Ethopian charity owner charged with child sexual abuse

Ethopian charity owner charged with child sexual abuse

Posted using ShareThis

UN Traces Missiles that Hit Belarusian Aircraft to Eritrea

UN Traces Missiles that Hit Belarusian Aircraft to Eritrea
Friday, 19 March 2010 08:24 Asmarino Editorial


Below is a report by Matt Schroeder on how the UN traced the downing of a Belarusian aircraft to two SA-18 Igla shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles provided by Eritrea. But before we do that, we would like to put this finding within its proper context to underscore how much the Eritrean regime has become a threat both to its people and the region.

The proper context by Asmarino Editorial

In Nov 28, 2002, two SA-7 shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles were fired by Al-Qaeda operatives at an Israeli Arkia aircraft that took off from Nairobi (Kenya) airport, carrying 261 passengers and 10 crew members. Even though the missiles were fired from a range of two kilometers, the aircraft was unharmed and managed to make it all the way to Tel Aviv, Israel. Had it been the SA-18 Igla, a more sophisticated weapon and one that has about 5 kilometers range, it most certainly would have downed the aircraft, killing 271 people. If so, it would have been one of the most successful operatives of Al Qaeda and a tragedy to Israel. The point is this: Eritrea has been providing the terrorist group Al Shabaab with sophisticated shoulder fired missiles that even Al Qaeda itself didn’t have. Now that Al Shabaab has become an Al Qaeda affiliate, it is easy to imagine these easily portable missiles being used in major airports. This is especially true in cases of Nairobi and Addis-Ababa, where Somali insurgents could easily infiltrate given the proximity and large Somali populations in both Kenya and Ethiopia.

What makes the Eritrean case unique among terror-sponsoring nations is that it is lead by an immensely stupid regime that doesn’t know where to stop. For instance, in the 30 years war of liberation, the Arabs – especially Iraq, Syria and Libya – were providing arms to the Eritrean Fronts. Yet, there is not a single case where they provided shoulder-fired missiles. That is to say, even in support, the Arab nations knew where to draw the line. They didn’t want to be held liable if any one of the Fronts used such a missile to down an Ethiopian or any other Airliner from Asmara or Addis-Ababa airports. Not so in the case of the Eritrean Regime. In its scorched earth approach, it provides a notorious Islamist group with all the sophisticated weapons it has without figuring the long range consequences of such an act. What about if either Al Shabaab itself or any other Al Qaeda group is to use one of these missiles to down an Airliner outside Somalia? If it is an Ethiopia Airliner, it would surely lead to war. And if it is a western Airliner, it would surely lead for a more stringent sanction, at minimum, and a call for regime change, at maximum.

One of the reasons why the Eritrean regime is so confident in its dealings with the terrorist organization Al Shabaab is that it believes it goes against the interests of Al Shabbab to put Eritrea in such a predicament. They don’t seem to have learned a lesson from Sept 11 event, where a terrorist organization – Al Qaeda – put its host nation, Afghanistan, into an existential risk. Besides, Eritrea is not Al Shabaab’s ideological ally; strategic alliances are of temporary nature and easy to break. For instance, if the late reports are to be believed, it seems Eritrea’s help is shifting from Al Shabaab to Hizb Al Islam. If this leads to a total break up of the relationship, then there would no inhibition from the Al Shabab side on what for and where to use these missiles. But, above all, it is the idea that the Eritrean regime has more sway than Al Qaeda over Al Shabaab that is amusing. If Al Qaeda wants these missiles, their ideologically partners will surely comply; one shouldn’t try to find logic behind dogma.

…………………………………………………………………………..

Below are the reports from Matt Schroeder:

New Information on Somali MANPADS

Arms Trade, Man-portable Air Defense Systems, Matt Schroeder, Somalia

The latest report from the UN Monitoring Group on Somalia contains additional information about the shoulder-fired, surface-to-air missiles used by Islamic insurgents to shoot down a Belarusian cargo aircraft in March. Below is an excerpt from the UN report:

On 23 March 2007, at approximately 1700 hours, an IL-76 cargo plane belonging to Transaviaexport, a Belarusian company, was shot down after a missile fired by Shabaab fighters hit the left wing. The plane, with 11 crewmembers and passengers, was hit at low altitude following take-off. It had earlier delivered logistics and spare parts for another aircraft that had made an emergency landing at Mogadishu International Airport. The missile used to shoot down the plane was an SA-18 (MANPAD, Man Portable Air Defence System). The SA-18 was reported to be part of a consignment of six SA-18s that had been delivered by Eritrea to ICU/Shabaab. Two missiles were fired at the plane; one hit the target and the other missed. The Monitoring Group showed the Committee a video of the actual firing of the missile, during the midterm briefing on 27 April 2007.
Written by Matt Schroeder \\ tags: arms trafficking, manpads, Somalia,

Missile Watch: Somalia

Arms Trade, Man-portable Air Defense Systems, Matt Schroeder, Somalia

The latest report of the UN Monitoring Group on Somalia sheds new light on the SA-18 Igla missiles illicitly acquired by armed Somali groups in recent years. Since 2006, UN investigators and journalists working in Somalia have documented the transfer of dozens, possibly hundreds, of shoulder-fired, surface-to-air missiles to Islamic insurgents. The missiles range in sophistication from the relatively primitive SA-7b Strela to the third generation SA-18 Igla. In March 2007, two SA-18s were used to shoot down a Belarusian Ilyushin-76 cargo plane shortly after it departed from Mogadishu airport. All eleven crew members were killed.

Missile Watch No. 2: Somalia

Arms Trade, Man-portable Air Defense Systems, Matt Schroeder, Somalia

CNN and AFP are reporting that the Shabaab, a militant wing of a Somali insurgent group, the Islamic Courts Union (ICU), has threatened to treat “as an enemy combatant” any plane that attempts to land at Mogadishu Airport. According to AFP, the threat, which was posted on the Internet, was confirmed by Shabaab leader Mukhtar Robow. The web posting reportedly includes a list of grievances used to justify the threat, including the airport’s use by “Ugandan and Bulgarian mercenaries,” money generated by the airport for the Ethiopian government, and harassment of “Somali religious personalities” by “US and Israeli secret services…” The warnings are accompanied by a graphic of a man pointing a shoulder-fired missile at a plane as it is landing.

The threat is not to be taken lightly. Last year, the FAS identified Somalia as one of three MANPADS proliferation hotspots worldwide in response to numerous reports of illicit missile activity, most of which involved the ICU and the Shabaab. In 2006, UN investigators identified at least six shipments of MANPADS and other weapons to the violent Insurgent group, including a shipment of “50 units” of ”shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles and second generation infrared-guided anti-tank weapons” from Eritrea, “45 units” of surface-to-air missiles from Iran, and three surface-to-air missiles from Syria. In each case, the missiles were part of larger arms shipments that also included dozens of assault rifles, machine guns, and other small arms and light weapons. The Associated Press later reported that the ICU had received 200 shoulder-fired missiles from Eritrea alone.

In March 2007, the Islamists fired two advanced SA-18 missiles at a Belarussian cargo aircraft as it was departing from Mogadishu International Airport. One of the missiles hit the plane, causing it to crash and killing all eleven people on board. UN investigators later concluded that the missiles used in the attack were part of a consignment of six SA-18s acquired from Eritrea. This summer, the UN traced another SA-18 found in Somalia back to a batch of Russian missiles that were shipped to Eritrea in 1995. The Eritrean government denies allegations that it provides missiles and other weapons to the ICU.

THE VETERANS ARE LEAVING!

Many veterans of the Revolutionary Democrats, particularly the senior leaders from the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and Amhara National Democratic Movement (ANDM), have not been enlisted to run for either the regional councils or the

 

Federal Parliament. From Sebhat Nega to Mulugeta Alemseged and Teklewoyni Assefa to Debretsion Gebremichael (all council members of the TPLF), many have been left out from the list of candidates their organisation has fielded for the forthcoming national elections. This move is seen by political pundits as the start of a succession process that the incumbent recently said it would embark upon, with a three-phase process taking five years. The other mass of departures from the electoral game is seen at the top leadership of the ANDM, where the four most prominent veterans of the armed struggle - Addisu Legesse, Bereket Simon, Tefera Walwa and Taddese (Tinkishu) Kassa - were all dropped out of the electoral contest. It is interesting to note that little of this unprecedented political development is observed with the other junior parties in the ruling coalition, the Oromia People’s Democratic Organisation (OPDO) and the South Ethiopian Peoples’ Democratic Movement (SEPDM). With the exception of Kuma Demekssa, whose mayoral position in Addis Abeba would not allow him to run now, all the executive committee members of the ruling EPRDF, representing the OPDO, have made it onto the list. The case is no different with their comrades in the south. Above are identified members of the EPRDF’s Executive Committee who are listed to run for the election (green colour) and those opted out from the electoral debacle (red)!

Full story:  Addis Fortune

China in Ethiopia VOA Special Report

Editor's Note: Conclusion of the debates

If every able voter has watched the 2010 election debates, I am sure he/she has grasped some ideas about what the post election period will be. The debates may have inspired many while at the same time they may have brought some dilemma on how to conduct a smooth transition that rewards votes to the party that really deserves them. It has been evident from the inception that the opposition parties have the double load of overcoming the heavy handed influence of the EPRDF by proving they are better suited to serve the country. As one of the ruling party's spokesmen and some opposition candidates stressed, the main goal of conducting an election is to bring about a better party to leading the country. If it is all about bickering and self aggrandizement, then elections wouldn't be necessary. In spite of all the uniform belief about the positive contributions of voting for a deservedly capable candidate, history tells us that unpredictable things can happen. One promising attitude from observing the debates is that there is a common understanding that this time it won't even closely resemble the 2005 election which resulted not only in a disaster but also nearly polarized the country.

The lessons learned from the debates is that all sides have made clear they meant business. The opposition have notable differences among each other but mostly the over all distinction from the ruling party is identified in the debates. What unifies the opposition parties is their shared commonality about the conducts of the ruling party in terms of adopting revolutionary democracy as the sole resolve for the country's future prospect. Some underscored the initial socialist orientation of the ruling party with-hard-to-deny facts that it has come a long way from that ideology by conforming its policies to changing realities in the country. To be fair, before the end of the cold war, it could be said the direction of the country's future that was oriented toward socialism heavily reflected in the working agendas of the rebels as well as those who were against them. As Mr. Redewan said, it is the ability to learn and make speedy internal transformation that counts. The other point noted by the opposition, if elected is the promise they like to make the supreme law of the nation above every one. They unanimously criticize the regime for acting as if it is above the law in the policies it acquires toward adding new rules, in some cases overnight, to challenge its opponents. The ruling party mostly shrugs this claim aside by stressing its action is the result of implementing the policies of revolutionary democracy whenever it believes the challenge is a destabilizing factor.

My hope is, this debate has and will improve the democratic culture of the population in conducting a smooth election, in which case it will have brought the understanding that there shouldn't be any surprises in any outcome, and it definitely shouldn't be a surprise if the incumbent party wins, as they should be given credit for making this possible. The most important goal of the election season should be making the future brighter.

Election 2010 Overview; Part 3: The Voter and "the Birtukan factor"

Letter from Ethiopia
Election 2010 Overview
Part 3: The Voter and "the Birtukan factor"
By Eskinder Nega | March 5, 2010

Here is the election from hell for the modern western pundit, journalist, commentator, politician and voter: an election without pre-election polling. Almost always halfheartedly dismissed by politicians, religiously studied by pundits and cited much too often by journalists, pre election polls gauge how voters are reacting to political parties and candidates in campaigns and what issues are important to them. Ever since the 1945 British elections, when the newly established subsidiary of Gallup accurately predicted a surprise Labor win over war-hero Winston Churchill, they have been generally accurate and indispensable .In short, no modern election should be without them. They are a legitimate and important source of information to voters, politicians, pundits and journalists alike.

But unlike the exhilarating 2005 elections, when the free press experimented with ingenuous polling, this year’s election, in perfect sync with its impassive tone (thanks to the election code of conduct, state media tells us) has yet to see its first poll. One reason is of course the absence of firms that are capable of conducting neutral scientific polls, but a second, much more important-- and menacing -- threat has more to do with its total absence: the recognition by the EPRDF that polls conducted as an election proceeds work in favor of the party in lead, generating momentum and jolting the vote of its supporters to a new level of consequence. This is no mere paranoia. Polls had boosted the moral of the opposition in 2005; and in a first for the EPRDF (the TPLF in particular), had badly demoralized its supporters.

Though we do not have polls to show us the preferences, leanings, differences and concerns of the Ethiopian voter, that does not necessarily preclude the mapping of voting patterns based on precedent, gender, ethnicity, income, etc., which are more often than not accurate.

The average Ethiopian voter is young; around 50 % of the electorate is under 30. The 18 to 24 age group by itself is more than 10 % of the voting public; but this is hardly surprising for a country whose median age is 17 barely years. It is the under-30 age group, conspicuously those between 15 and 25, that protested the election results in the streets in late 2005; and if there are to be street protests again this year, which is unlikely but not impossible, it will be this group again that will battle against the security forces. It is also the group that the EPRDF has invested most heavily on for the past four years; by and large through training schemes and public works programs. In addition to a newly constituted youth wing of the EPRDF, a youth organization funded by Ethio-Saudi billionaire Al-Amoudi, has been created to stir this group away from the opposition after the post-election riots, though its efforts have been hopelessly compromised by a series of debilitating scandals. Fortunately for the EPRDF, however, unlike 2005, when the urban youth openly identified itself with the CUD, that enthusiasm for party affiliation is visibly absent this year, the lack of patience for deciphering the complexities that led to the fallout between CUD leaders even more pronounced. But this is a volatile group; there is no certainty with it, and EPRDF has organized an elite strike force tasked to make sure, in the event of protests, that its control of the streets will be shorter than it was in 2005.

The great hyped hope of the EPRDF in Addis Ababa, which will inevitably be closely monitored by international observers, is the women vote this year.

Kebele cadres have been instructed to do everything to sway them, and many of them are opting for a career boost by delivering them.. Women are supposedly not paying much attention to the campaign, are less disenchanted than men, and are most likely undecided about whom to vote for. They are in effect the swing vote. It is also counting on between a fourth and a third of the city’s vote (calculating on the basis of the 2000 and 2005 election results), who will predictably come out in full force to vote come election day. This is the only section of the voting public that is thrilled about the election (EPRDF’s win is after all assured at the national level), is confident of its choice and is decidedly motivated by the opposition’s disarray.

EPRDF’s calculation is that with a split opposition, some of the women vote that went to the opposition in 2005, and a third of the vote that could be counted on, it will be viable in Addis.

But in all likelihood, the EPRDF is posed to lose the women vote in Addis because of what could be called “the Birtukan factor”. Many women speak sympathetically about the plight of Bitukan Medeksa, the imprisoned leader of UDJ, and most pundits are convinced that many more (men as well as women) will vote for her party as a gesture of empathy and solidarity. Neither have empirical researches shown that women voters are any more politically ignorant than their male counterparts. Ignorance of detailed political issues is a feature of the electorate in general, with no great gender bias. The bulk of the Ethiopian public usually benignly abstains from closely tracking political issues, and is content to respond to cues issued by political activists. (And I fear that this is true of the Diaspora, too)

The fancy strategies of the EPRDF notwithstanding, Addis Ababa will not vote for the EPRDF; however uninspired voters may end up being by the opposition. (The opposition may yet inspire, by the way. Two and a half months are a long, long time in politics.) Merkato, the city’s business hub, in particular, is more, not less, anti-EPRDF, than it was in 2005.This is the section of the city that was brutally suppressed during the street protests in 2005, and the pain and bitterness still lingers.

EPRDF remains unpopular in the other major urban areas, too; the sympathy for Birtukan no less. But the EPRDF is not expected to concede all of them to the opposition as it did in 2005. Expect them to be the epicenters of controversy in the post-election period.

An astounding 85 % of the Ethiopian voter is rural based. This means roughly 25 million people this year, spread out over 1, 000, 000 sq. km; where every 50 households are now being monitored by new sub-level party and government structures set up after the 2005 election. (In an American or European context, this is equivalent to installing security cameras at every corner in the neighborhood for political surveillance.) Opposition presence had always been weak in the countryside, but their almost total absence so far, less than 90 days before election day, is truly disquieting.

Given the choice, rural voters will overwhelmingly turn against the EPRDF; who, from the perspective of the average farmer, has accomplished what everyone thought impossible: to be more intrusive in a farmer’s life than even the Derg.

Who then, entangled in such a life, would not crave his freedom?