China in Ethiopia VOA Special Report

Editor's Note: Conclusion of the debates

If every able voter has watched the 2010 election debates, I am sure he/she has grasped some ideas about what the post election period will be. The debates may have inspired many while at the same time they may have brought some dilemma on how to conduct a smooth transition that rewards votes to the party that really deserves them. It has been evident from the inception that the opposition parties have the double load of overcoming the heavy handed influence of the EPRDF by proving they are better suited to serve the country. As one of the ruling party's spokesmen and some opposition candidates stressed, the main goal of conducting an election is to bring about a better party to leading the country. If it is all about bickering and self aggrandizement, then elections wouldn't be necessary. In spite of all the uniform belief about the positive contributions of voting for a deservedly capable candidate, history tells us that unpredictable things can happen. One promising attitude from observing the debates is that there is a common understanding that this time it won't even closely resemble the 2005 election which resulted not only in a disaster but also nearly polarized the country.

The lessons learned from the debates is that all sides have made clear they meant business. The opposition have notable differences among each other but mostly the over all distinction from the ruling party is identified in the debates. What unifies the opposition parties is their shared commonality about the conducts of the ruling party in terms of adopting revolutionary democracy as the sole resolve for the country's future prospect. Some underscored the initial socialist orientation of the ruling party with-hard-to-deny facts that it has come a long way from that ideology by conforming its policies to changing realities in the country. To be fair, before the end of the cold war, it could be said the direction of the country's future that was oriented toward socialism heavily reflected in the working agendas of the rebels as well as those who were against them. As Mr. Redewan said, it is the ability to learn and make speedy internal transformation that counts. The other point noted by the opposition, if elected is the promise they like to make the supreme law of the nation above every one. They unanimously criticize the regime for acting as if it is above the law in the policies it acquires toward adding new rules, in some cases overnight, to challenge its opponents. The ruling party mostly shrugs this claim aside by stressing its action is the result of implementing the policies of revolutionary democracy whenever it believes the challenge is a destabilizing factor.

My hope is, this debate has and will improve the democratic culture of the population in conducting a smooth election, in which case it will have brought the understanding that there shouldn't be any surprises in any outcome, and it definitely shouldn't be a surprise if the incumbent party wins, as they should be given credit for making this possible. The most important goal of the election season should be making the future brighter.

Election 2010 Overview; Part 3: The Voter and "the Birtukan factor"

Letter from Ethiopia
Election 2010 Overview
Part 3: The Voter and "the Birtukan factor"
By Eskinder Nega | March 5, 2010

Here is the election from hell for the modern western pundit, journalist, commentator, politician and voter: an election without pre-election polling. Almost always halfheartedly dismissed by politicians, religiously studied by pundits and cited much too often by journalists, pre election polls gauge how voters are reacting to political parties and candidates in campaigns and what issues are important to them. Ever since the 1945 British elections, when the newly established subsidiary of Gallup accurately predicted a surprise Labor win over war-hero Winston Churchill, they have been generally accurate and indispensable .In short, no modern election should be without them. They are a legitimate and important source of information to voters, politicians, pundits and journalists alike.

But unlike the exhilarating 2005 elections, when the free press experimented with ingenuous polling, this year’s election, in perfect sync with its impassive tone (thanks to the election code of conduct, state media tells us) has yet to see its first poll. One reason is of course the absence of firms that are capable of conducting neutral scientific polls, but a second, much more important-- and menacing -- threat has more to do with its total absence: the recognition by the EPRDF that polls conducted as an election proceeds work in favor of the party in lead, generating momentum and jolting the vote of its supporters to a new level of consequence. This is no mere paranoia. Polls had boosted the moral of the opposition in 2005; and in a first for the EPRDF (the TPLF in particular), had badly demoralized its supporters.

Though we do not have polls to show us the preferences, leanings, differences and concerns of the Ethiopian voter, that does not necessarily preclude the mapping of voting patterns based on precedent, gender, ethnicity, income, etc., which are more often than not accurate.

The average Ethiopian voter is young; around 50 % of the electorate is under 30. The 18 to 24 age group by itself is more than 10 % of the voting public; but this is hardly surprising for a country whose median age is 17 barely years. It is the under-30 age group, conspicuously those between 15 and 25, that protested the election results in the streets in late 2005; and if there are to be street protests again this year, which is unlikely but not impossible, it will be this group again that will battle against the security forces. It is also the group that the EPRDF has invested most heavily on for the past four years; by and large through training schemes and public works programs. In addition to a newly constituted youth wing of the EPRDF, a youth organization funded by Ethio-Saudi billionaire Al-Amoudi, has been created to stir this group away from the opposition after the post-election riots, though its efforts have been hopelessly compromised by a series of debilitating scandals. Fortunately for the EPRDF, however, unlike 2005, when the urban youth openly identified itself with the CUD, that enthusiasm for party affiliation is visibly absent this year, the lack of patience for deciphering the complexities that led to the fallout between CUD leaders even more pronounced. But this is a volatile group; there is no certainty with it, and EPRDF has organized an elite strike force tasked to make sure, in the event of protests, that its control of the streets will be shorter than it was in 2005.

The great hyped hope of the EPRDF in Addis Ababa, which will inevitably be closely monitored by international observers, is the women vote this year.

Kebele cadres have been instructed to do everything to sway them, and many of them are opting for a career boost by delivering them.. Women are supposedly not paying much attention to the campaign, are less disenchanted than men, and are most likely undecided about whom to vote for. They are in effect the swing vote. It is also counting on between a fourth and a third of the city’s vote (calculating on the basis of the 2000 and 2005 election results), who will predictably come out in full force to vote come election day. This is the only section of the voting public that is thrilled about the election (EPRDF’s win is after all assured at the national level), is confident of its choice and is decidedly motivated by the opposition’s disarray.

EPRDF’s calculation is that with a split opposition, some of the women vote that went to the opposition in 2005, and a third of the vote that could be counted on, it will be viable in Addis.

But in all likelihood, the EPRDF is posed to lose the women vote in Addis because of what could be called “the Birtukan factor”. Many women speak sympathetically about the plight of Bitukan Medeksa, the imprisoned leader of UDJ, and most pundits are convinced that many more (men as well as women) will vote for her party as a gesture of empathy and solidarity. Neither have empirical researches shown that women voters are any more politically ignorant than their male counterparts. Ignorance of detailed political issues is a feature of the electorate in general, with no great gender bias. The bulk of the Ethiopian public usually benignly abstains from closely tracking political issues, and is content to respond to cues issued by political activists. (And I fear that this is true of the Diaspora, too)

The fancy strategies of the EPRDF notwithstanding, Addis Ababa will not vote for the EPRDF; however uninspired voters may end up being by the opposition. (The opposition may yet inspire, by the way. Two and a half months are a long, long time in politics.) Merkato, the city’s business hub, in particular, is more, not less, anti-EPRDF, than it was in 2005.This is the section of the city that was brutally suppressed during the street protests in 2005, and the pain and bitterness still lingers.

EPRDF remains unpopular in the other major urban areas, too; the sympathy for Birtukan no less. But the EPRDF is not expected to concede all of them to the opposition as it did in 2005. Expect them to be the epicenters of controversy in the post-election period.

An astounding 85 % of the Ethiopian voter is rural based. This means roughly 25 million people this year, spread out over 1, 000, 000 sq. km; where every 50 households are now being monitored by new sub-level party and government structures set up after the 2005 election. (In an American or European context, this is equivalent to installing security cameras at every corner in the neighborhood for political surveillance.) Opposition presence had always been weak in the countryside, but their almost total absence so far, less than 90 days before election day, is truly disquieting.

Given the choice, rural voters will overwhelmingly turn against the EPRDF; who, from the perspective of the average farmer, has accomplished what everyone thought impossible: to be more intrusive in a farmer’s life than even the Derg.

Who then, entangled in such a life, would not crave his freedom?

Editor's note: The case of a Federal system of government in Ethiopia

It was interesting to watch the 2015 election debates on important and controversial topics chosen in advance. The participating party leaders were out to stress on their fundamental policy differences with the ruling party to the extent of deviating from the issues that the government wants to focus as tangible and convincing achievements of social and structural developments in various sectors in the last decades. One of them was about Ethiopia's choice to go federal. Based on what some of the candidates consider disconcerting, I have a good reason to believe in some cases people may end up getting confused. A good example is the debate on the pros and cons of implementing the federal system in Ethiopia. The name "The Federal Government of Ethiopia" was meant to imply the system has already been in practice since the inception of the EPRDF as a ruling party. However, the debates reflected the people may not be at ease with the system; namely the way the government may be imposing on the people instead of nurturing federalism from bottom up. In my view this may show the symptoms of imperfection of making the federal system work than the negative implications of a failed process. If this is the case, then it is a normal trend for any working system that has to be truly tested to sustain as a transition rather than an end in itself. The main factors that invigorate a system are the patterns it shows either as a conforming or a suppressing instrument in response to changing realities on the ground. The fact that it hasn't progressed into a hasty disintegration of the country itself is a good proof that the motive is not meant or did not succeed (if any) to cause polarizations among ethnic groups.

That said, all candidates displayed a commendable knowledge about what the global picture of introducing federalism to differing countries with different realities would be. They tried to get to the nitty gritty of how many countries followed the federal system and how many failed in doing so. But they fell short of scientifically(is there one yet?)approaching the reasons why federalism succeeded in some countries and failed in others. In some cases it seemed some candidates had an honest outlook of why federalism should work smoothly in Ethiopia or otherwise. The reason given by one of the EPRDF spokesmen, for instance was; as long as people have the basic freedoms, they won't have to stick to the divisive motto of cessation because there is no need for it. In other words, they won't secede just because the freedom to do so is mentioned in article 39 of the constitution. Although this has proven to be a working principle for cooling down tempers, it always depended on who says it. So many countries may have the same or similar articles in their constitutions but the outcome proved to be devastatingly negative in some countries. The main reason is usually the fact that the opposing groups can have the ability to magnify the slightest imperfections if they think they are not welcome in the system. So, the devil is in the details. The other factors are based on how well the economy performs and how strong the government functions in terms of containing conflicts and opposing views of these nature using effective political and security defensive mechanisms.

With that in mind, it looks like the notion that Ethiopia was never created without regional snse shows in the peoples' wisdom to focus their attentions on the substantial growth of the over all economy and hence the infrastructure of the country as the sole basis to prove federalism works on their behalf.

There were also other debates, namely one that caught my attention was the foreign policy relating to the competence of the regime in running an effective foreign policy with capable representatives that can defend the country's interest when needed. The main agenda, however delayed, was about the problems with the sea outlets and the opportunities missed during the boundary decisions made in Algiers that left the country landlocked. The other most current issue that depicts a failing foreign policy the dire situation and fatalities involving those who chose to flee the country into worse and uninviting foreign lands.

Until history judges who is on the right side, the events that show desperation or on the other hand, the unsuspecting naivete of the citizens who choose to flee the system by all means are open for debate,

Ethiopia claims Lebanon has tainted ET409 inquiry

Ethiopian Airlines CEO Girma Wake (AP Photo/Samson Haileyesus)Ethiopian Airlines CEO Girma Wake has issued a scathing list of grievances against the Republic of Lebanon over the ET409 crash inquiry, as reported on Saturday, February 27, by Kaleyesus Bekele in the Ethiopian newspaper, The Reporter.

Charges against Lebanon include (1) denied access to the families of the Lebanese passengers who perished when ET409, a Boeing 737-800, crashed some 4 minutes after taking off from Beirut (BEY) last January 25; (2) denied examination of the recovered remains; (3) discrepancy in the number of bodies reported as initially recovered, 25 compared with the 14 that were actually available at the Beirut morgue; (4) denied access examining the recovered CVR; (5) accusations that the CVR had been tampered with and partially erased; (6) inadequate responses to questions posed to Lebanese officials; (7) denied access to the crash site to make first hand observations; (8) denied access to a transcript of an interview with a Lebanese army officer who swore that he observed the aircraft explode while aloft, and failure to produce that witness; (9) leaking of false and misleading information; (10) breaking an agreement to preserve confidentiality; and (11) obstructing the investigation and keeping the Ethiopian 13-member delegation composed of senior pilots, medical personnel and other professionals from full participation in the investigation process.

CAPTIONS: (ABOVE LEFT) Ethiopian Airlines CEO Girma Wake (AP Photo/Samson Haileyesus); (BELOW RIGHT) Lebanon's Transportation Minister Ghazi Aridi shows photographs from the wreckage of ET409 (AP Photo/Mahmoud Tawil); (BELOW LEFT) A cousin of Ethiopian Airlines plane crash victims Fuad and Abbas Jaber release balloons as she mourns on the beach in Khalde, south of Beirut, Lebanon, Friday, Jan. 29, 2010 (AP Photo/Hussein Malla); (BELOW RIGHT LOWER) Question Mark (Wikipedia/Common Usage/Public Domain)

Recent articles: Be sure to read expanded coverage on recent news events below.

These are not minor annoyances or petty grievances. Both countries have apparently received a preliminary report from BEA, an agency of the French government that is analyzing the available data in its laboratories near Paris, and conducting field interviews. As Mr. Wake stated, "If someone uses political power to alter the theme of the report then we will discuss this."

A cousin of Ethiopian Airlines plane crash victims Fuad and Abbas Jaber release balloons as she mourns on the beach in Khalde, south of Beirut, Lebanon, Friday, Jan. 29, 2010 (AP Photo/Hussein Malla) Mr. Wake's language would make any diplomat grimace, because it is blunt and unfiltered. He went on to say at a press conference last Wednesday in Addis Ababa, the Ethiopian capital, "It is not in line with what our two countries have signed for. Are we out for a big war? I hope the investigators will put some sense into the investigation and come out with a proper working system, thereby avoiding a war between nations, between authorities. I'm hoping that may not be necessary, but we are not ready to accept a conclusion made without a proper analysis."

Anyone who speaks of war, whether figuratively or not, is throwing down the gauntlet. It is obvious to this observer and others, that Mr. Wake has been pushed to his limits, and is expressing extreme frustration and betrayal.

As the CEO pointed out, "A lot of war has been going on in Lebanon, the whole area has been full of political turmoil; divisions within countries in the region. Because of that people can take their own wild guesses. The very fact it happened at Beirut airport at time when it is politically sensitive, does gives people to put their own thinking into it." What he was implying was sabotage, or some other terrorist act.

From the very start, Lebanon has ruled out terrorism. They first blamed violent thunderstorms, lightning, wind shear, and micro bursts, then implied that the incident was caused either by technical failure or human error.

For any outside observer, who is accustomed to following an accident investigation with daily briefings, photographs and displays of the evidence, independent technical analysis, media access, consistent statements, and above all transparency, the process within Lebanon is highly irregular, and potentially alarming.

Answers to simple questions would go far in clearing up ambiguities. These include: What was theQuestion Mark (Wikipedia/Common Usage/Public Domain) original departure clearance granted to ET409? Were there other aircraft, as we have uncovered, in the area? Why was ET409 allegedly given instructions to change course? Had it already been granted clearance to return to Beirut? Was Captain Habtamu Benti Negasa the Pilot in Command (PIC) at takeoff? If he was not flying the aircraft, at the first indication of a problem, did he issue the command "My Aircraft" to First Officer Alula Tamerat? Did Mr. Tamerat reply, "Your Aircraft, Captain", and hand off control. Were intelligence satellite surveillance operating in the area sending classified data to a third country that would have picked up anomalies, such as the highly classified and secretive National Security Administration? Why were there long delays between locating and retrieving both data recorders? Who had access to these recorders once recovered, and what was the chain of custody? Were there indications of burns or traces of nitrates on the bodies of the passengers? Did recovered pieces of the aircraft show an implosion, charring, or deformation not consistent with water impact?

Any investigative authority would ask these questions, and others. Eventually, they will have to be addressed, incorporated into findings, or eliminated as having no cause for this incident. Our coverage will continue as additional information becomes known.

Andrew McCarthy Arrested in Ethiopia | TheCelebrityCafe.com

The 'Weekend at Bernie's' star was escorted out of Lalibela, Ethiopia, at gunpoint. Michelle Vaccaro Actor Andrew McCarthy found himself at gunpoint while on assignment for Afar magazine. The 47-year-old Weekend at Bernie’s star took part in the magazine’s “Spin the Globe” program where the staff literally turns a globe and picks a spot at random to send a writer. According to People, McCarthy was in Lalibela, one of Ethiopia’s holiest cities, visiting an underground church when he was escorted out with a gun pointed at his back for not having the proper documentation. He said that he had purchased a ticket, but had accidentally left it in his hotel room. McCarthy wrote about the scary experience saying, “I thought his reaction to my offense was extreme; I tried to say as much. He grunted something in Amharic and prodded me with the tip of his rifle.” He added it “was just the kind of thing that happens when you show up alone in a distant country without a plan.” McCarthy was freed after some help from the locals. McCarthy shot to fame in the 80s. He starred in Mannequin, Weekend at Bernie’s and the cult flick Pretty in Pink. His most recent role was as Joe Bennett on the now defunct Lipstick Jungle. Andrew McCarthy Arrested in Ethiopia | TheCelebrityCafe.com

Flight ET409 Exposes Lebanon's Racist Underbelly

Patrick GaleyReporter based in Beirut, Lebanon
Even though there were nine nationalities aboard the Boeing 737 jet which burst into flames and crashed into the sea minutes after taking off in a violent thunderstorm on Monday morning, the Lebanese, naturally enough, only concerned themselves with one.

54 Lebanese, almost all from the country's predominately Shiite southern region, are probably dead and the nation's outpouring of grief has been intense.

Prime Minister Saad Hariri declared Monday to be a national day of mourning for the victims; the education minister closed institutions for two days as a mark of respect.

The funeral of a southern businessman, who worked for a food import country in Angola, attracted international media attention, with veiled women throwing themselves on the coffin.

Distraught friends and relatives are still thronging a hospital in southern Beirut, waiting to identify mangled bodies being dragged from the eastern Mediterranean.

The search for the plane's black box is continuing, with families of victims waiting anxiously for clues on what befell flight ET409 in the seconds before disappearing off radar screens for good.

As with any air disaster in a post 9/11 world, terrorism has been raised as a possible cause, with several Lebanese dailies carrying uncorroborated allegations that the crash was the result of a "deliberate attack."

Whatever the cause of the disaster, it has exposed the uncomfortable and often unuttered truth that many Lebanese are still virulently racist.

23 migrant domestic workers from Ethiopia were onboard the ill-fated flight, along with at least seven airline crew members. The pilot was also Ethiopian.

In the absence of concrete facts, Lebanon's transport minister suggested that pilot error may have downed the plane, with the jet having undertaking "a very strange and fast turn" seconds before crashing.

This was all the information many media outlets needed. Naharnet, an English-language news site to be read with a shovelful of salt, carried the offensive headline: "Ethiopian pilot flew wrong way!"

The complete lack of evidence aside, it is certain that no such exclamatory tone would have been used if the pilot were Lebanese.

The inference here is simple: an Ethiopian pilot - silly him - ignored the...MORE

Yemen, the new Eldorado ?

Every day on the southern coast of Yemen, illegal boats drop off men, and women running from war and poverty in Africa. But they’ve come to one of the poorest places on earth. REPORTERS By Cyril VANIER / Karim HAKIKI We’re standing on a beach in southern Yemen, early one November morning. On the opposite side of the Gulf of Aden lies the Horn of Africa, one of the most troubled regions on earth, racked by civil war and poverty. Those who can pay for their way out, make their way to Yemen. Seventy dollars buys them a spot on the next boat out. Many are beaten on the way, sometimes women are raped, and all too often - passengers drown. Those who reach Yemen will have to start a new life from scratch. The sea is calm this morning, it is high season for illegal boats crossing into Yemen. Last night, we heard a motor boat travelling parallel to the beach. There was no light, no noise on board except for the engine: probably a smuggler using the cover of night to carry his human cargo. Before sunrise, we meet up with a Yemeni charity, tasked with finding and sheltering Somali immigrants. We drive up and down the coastline, looking for what the United Nations call “new arrivals”. In a cemetery along the way, we number 41 tombstones – that’s how many bodies have washed up on beaches in this area since May- and spot five empty graves. They won’t stay empty for long: high season means more people are bound to drown over the coming weeks. ...MORE

Africa shows a willingness to negotiate - COP15 United Nations Climate Change Conference Copenhagen 2009

Rie Jerichow 16/12/2009 16:20 Earlier this week, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown met with Ethiopia's Prime Minister and African Union climate negotiator Meles Zenawi. On Wednesday Brown said that Zenawi would soon come up with a proposal that could be an important step forward. So he did. Meles Zenawi has announced that he supports 100 billion US dollars annual funds by 2020 from rich countries to help the poor world fight and adapt to climate changes. The EU has estimated that the developing countries will need 150 billion dollars. "On long-term financing, I propose funding for adaptation and mitigation (emissions curbs) should start by 2013, to reach up to 50 billion dollars per annum by 2015 and 100 billion dollars per annum by 2020," he said on behalf of the African group, according to Reuters. "No less than 50 percent should be allocated to adaptation to vulnerable and poor countries and regions such as African and small islands states," Meles Zenawi added. Meles Zenawi hinted that Africa would not insist on public money. In his proposal, funding would be financed by creative financing mechanisms including carbon taxes and sales of emissions rights, Reuters reports. "I know my proposal today will disappoint some Africans. My proposal scales back our expectation with respect to the level of funding in return for more reliable funding," the African Union climate negotiator said. (Photo: Scanpix/AFP) READ MORE Africa shows a willingness to negotiate - COP15 United Nations Climate Change Conference Copenhagen 2009

“We will not repeat the mistakes committed in the 2005 elections”

Prime Minister Meles Zenawi By Kaleyesus Bekele Prime Minister Meles Zenawi yesterday said that his government would not repeat the mistakes committed in the May 2005 election in the May 2010 elections. At a press conference he gave yesterday at his office, Meles told local reporters that his government was not prepared for the election riots of 2005. “Starting from putting in place a sufficient police force to monitoring the activities of armed groups we were not well prepared to control riots. But the EPRDF is known for one thing - it could make mistakes but it will not repeat them,” Meles said. Asked about the possibilities of forming a coalition government with opposition parties, Meles said such ideas were floated by those who do not know about the country’s election law. He pointed out that the party which wins a majority seat forms a government. “If the EPRDF doesn’t win adequate seats, it will hand over power. It can not work together with opposition parties, which have a completely different objective. What has been done in Kenya and Zimbabwe is they tried to eliminate the ruling party from power though chaos and when they failed they said that they had established a coalition government. They said so after many lost their lives. This doesn’t work here,” he said. Read More...